As the T20 World Cup 2024 enters its last week, it’s time for cricket teams to get back to the metaphorical drawing board and map out their paths to the knockout stage of the tournament.
Four out of the eight teams that progressed to the second round will fall to the side and watch on as the other four line up for the semifinals.
The last round of Super Eight matches will be played on Sunday and Monday.
Each team will get a chance to bag one last win. For some, it will be enough to sail through while others will need to win and then hope that the other match ends in a favourable result.
Al Jazeera breaks down the scenario in both Super Eight groups before the last round of matches on June 23 and 24:
Super Eights’ Group 1
Remaining fixtures: India vs Australia (June 24, 14:30 GMT), Afghanistan vs Bangladesh (June 25, 00:30 GMT)
India, by far, are the favourites to qualify having won both of their Super Eight matches but could still have to sweat it out against Australia.
Even if they win their last game, Australia and Afghanistan will still be dependent on other results and net run rates (NRR).
Group 1 standings (as on June 23 at 13:00 GMT):
India: Favourites to qualify
A win against their 50-over World Cup final conquerors Australia will not only wipe away a few tears but also send India into their second consecutive T20 World Cup semifinal.
India have remained unbeaten in the tournament and would like nothing more than to maintain that streak while potentially knocking out their familiar foes.
A loss against Australia will still keep them ahead of the other three teams, thanks to their impressive NRR of 2.425, which will likely be enough to see them through.
Australia: Likely to qualify
Australia find themselves going into their last match in a near-sudden death scenario. A loss against India in the day game in Saint Lucia will dent their semifinal chances heavily. But the 2021 champions could still make it through if Bangladesh do them a favour and beat Afghanistan in the later Group 1 match on Monday night in Saint Vincent.
A win against India may still not be enough but it will give Mitchell Marsh’s side an upper hand given their superior NRR compared to Afghanistan.
They sit above Afghanistan on the table thanks to their superior NRR of 0.223.
Afghanistan: Likely to qualify
From being considered so-called minnows up until a few years ago to being considered dark horses for the title in this tournament, Afghanistan have built on their results in every ICC tournament they have participated in.
Now, Rashid Khan’s side have given themselves a chance to qualify for the knockout stage for the first time in their history.
Should Australia lose to Australia, Afghanistan will simply need to win their last match. If Australia manage to beat India, a win with a healthy NRR will be required for a historic semifinal berth.
By the time Afghanistan play their game, they will have the exact NRR calculations in hand when they step on the field against Bangladesh. A big win against – with an approximate margin of 50 runs if batting first or chasing a target in five to spare if bowling first – is likely to send them through.
A loss will send their NRR of -0.650 spiralling and only an Australian thrashing by India could give them a glimmer of hope.
Bangladesh: Mathematical chance
The only way Bangladesh could come level on points with Australia and Afghanistan will be by beating the latter and hoping that India beat the former.
However, even if all three teams are level on points, Bangladesh are likely to have the worst NRR, which currently stands at -2.489. In this case, only a ridiculously big win over Afghanistan could give them a chance of qualifying.
Super Eights’ Group 2
South Africa have overcome all the challenges the T20 World Cup has thrown at them so far and are favourites for a semifinal spot but England and West Indies will be dependent on results and NRR.
Group 2 standings (as on June 23 at 13:00 GMT):
South Africa: Favourites to qualify
Remaining fixtures: England vs USA (June 23, 14:30 GMT), West Indies vs South Africa (June 24, 00:30 GMT)
The Proteas can qualify as table toppers by beating West Indies. A loss could also see them qualify should England fail to beat USA with a big margin and stay third on the table on the basis of NRR.
South Africa’s NRR before their last match is 0.625.
West Indies: Likely to qualify
The power-hitting, swashbuckling and crowd-favourite hosts will need all of those factors in order to qualify for the semis. A big win against now title favourites South Africa will bolster their NRR, as well as their chances.
Despite playing the night game, the West Indies will be up early to follow the England-USA game as a USA win could make their job easier.
If England win, West Indies will need a big win over South Africa to qualify. If the defending champions lose, the hosts will simply need to avoid a big defeat.
Their NRR of 1.814 has kept their rallying fans’ hopes alive.
England: Likely to qualify
The holders need to beat USA and beat them well. Their NRR of 0.412 keeps them in the third spot in the group table, behind leaders South Africa and hosts West Indies.
A loss in their last game and a win for West Indies will see England go out.
A win for Jos Buttler’s men and a loss for West Indies will see England go through. And, a win for both two-time champions will take the battle to NRR, where West Indies are likely to hold an edge.
USA: Mathematical chance
USA’s dream run at their first ICC World Cup is all but over but it’s been a journey to remember for the co-hosts.
Their stand-in captain Aaron Jones admitted in his pre-match comments that his side are all but out of the tournament, but one more win could throw spanner in the works for England and also end their own run on an inspirational note. An unlikely huge win could offer a glimmer of hope, too, should their poor NRR of -2.908 get a boost.