Ahead of India’s recent national elections, misinformation pushed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) backfired, instead exploding into a meme that went viral globally.
The claim — that Modi had managed to engineer a halt in Russia’s war in Ukraine to help evacuate thousands of stranded Indian medical students — was denied by India’s own foreign ministry. The BJP’s assertion was mocked in memes on social media and even by British comedian John Oliver on one of his shows.
Now, months later, Modi will be visiting Ukraine on an unprecedented trip to try and bolster India’s status as a potential peacemaker in the conflict, even if he cannot turn those previously mocked claims into reality. On Wednesday, Modi flew to Poland for a state visit. From there, he will travel by train Thursday night to Kyiv, where he is set to arrive in the early hours of Friday. No Indian prime minister has visited Ukraine since the modern formation of the country following the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Modi’s visit to Ukraine comes less than two months after he travelled to Moscow for the first time since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of its smaller neighbour in February 2022. That trip to Russia drew stern criticism from Ukraine and public expressions of displeasure from the United States.
Still, India remains a rare nation that enjoys good relations with both Russia and the West, Ukraine’s principal backer, and some analysts believe Modi could play a role in pushing the two sides towards talks.
“Prime Minister Modi’s visit might create an opportunity for dialogue and diplomacy,” Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategic analyst who also served in Russia, told Al Jazeera. “It is not an easy task,” he conceded. “But try we must for peace.”
The recent expansion of the war in particular poses a big challenge for Modi and any peace effort, said analysts and serving diplomats.
The right time for peace?
Ukraine’s recent incursion through the fragile Russian border into Kursk, where it claims to have grabbed 1,250sq km (777sq miles) of territory, has altered the balance of military engagement between the two countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged a firm response, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken about using his military’s territorial gains inside Russia for a land and prisoner swap, and to create a buffer zone between the warring neighbours. At the moment, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said there is no possibility of any talks with Kyiv.
Amid these military escalations, many within the diplomatic community in New Delhi are unconvinced about the merits of Modi’s plan to visit Kyiv. “It is not safe for him after the escalation of war between the two countries,” an ambassador from a European Union nation told Al Jazeera.
To be sure, New Delhi’s strong historic ties with Moscow mean that any aggression from Russia during Modi’s visit is unlikely to target the Indian prime minister. After all, Modi and India stood by their traditional friend at a time when the US and its Western allies imposed claustrophobic sanctions.
India has shifted its supply lines and dramatically upped subsidised oil purchases from Russia when its regular supplies used to come from the Middle East. In a matter of two years, 40 percent of India’s crude oil requirements are being met from the Russian Urals. Before February 24, 2022, India used to buy just 1 percent of its needs from Moscow. Now, Russia is India’s top oil supplier. Purchases from Russia have helped India save $10.5bn.
But analysts say India has neither the credentials nor the interest, beyond rhetoric, to push either side in the war too hard.
Does India have credibility as a peacemaker?
Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at Rand Corporation, said: “Modi is very unlikely to broker a peaceful resolution due to its complexity and also due to India’s role as a peripheral player, but perhaps most importantly because India doesn’t have any strong incentives to do so.”
He pointed out that India’s “longstanding strategic relationship with Russia and burgeoning ties with the West” require a careful balancing act by New Delhi. “Any overstep in negotiations toward one side or another could undermine these partnerships.”
Still, irrespective of what Modi can accomplish on his trip, the timing of his Ukraine visit is significant, said analysts.
His trip to Moscow in early July — during which he embraced Putin in a bear hug — drew condemnation from Ukraine and its allies, especially because it coincided with a deadly strike on a Kyiv children’s hospital. At least 38 people, including children, were killed in that attack.
“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” Zelenskyy said on X at the time.
The US was critical too. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned that strong ties with Russia were a “bad bet” for India. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US was concerned about India’s relations with Russia. And Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, cautioned that New Delhi could not take its friendship with Washington “for granted”.
Previously, Ukrainian and European officials have also repeatedly criticised India for increasing oil imports from Russia, accusing New Delhi of, in effect, putting more money in Moscow’s hands to pursue the war. This, even though Europe and the US have bought refined Indian oil that uses Russian crude too.
To be sure, the US has insisted that its strategic partnership with India — centred on shared concerns about China — remains robust. And on his part, Modi has publicly told Putin that “this is not an era for war”, while India has maintained that it supports peace in Ukraine.
Trigunayat pointed out that Ukraine — for all of its criticism of Indian actions — has on multiple occasions asked New Delhi to try to broker peace.
Ultimately, though, Trigunayat said, the outcome of any efforts “will depend on the two sides [Russia and Ukraine], their benefactors, and to what extent they are ready to negotiate and resolve the conflict”, referring to China (which has largely stood by Russia through the war) and the West (Ukraine’s military and economic backer).
Gulshan Sachdeva, professor of European Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, agreed, adding that he does not expect much from Modi’s trip and that Russia and the West are capable of talking with each other directly.
One way for India to build its credibility with Ukraine as a truly independent actor could be to invest in the reconstruction of the country, large parts of which have been devastated by the war.
“The visit may provide a good opportunity for India to launch new humanitarian and reconstruction initiatives in Ukraine,” Sachdeva wrote in a recent paper. India’s humanitarian assistance to Ukraine during the war has been limited to 16 containers worth $2.5m.
Modi might offer more aid during his trip. But, Sachdeva conceded, any Indian investment in Ukraine would likely need the war to end first.
What is India’s game plan?
So, what does Modi’s visit to Ukraine mean for India’s relations with Russia and what does it get out of the trip to Kyiv?
Putin won’t be thrilled about Modi’s visit to Kyiv. Still, India has repeatedly made clear that, unlike the West, it does not support the “strategic defeat” of Russia, according to Sachdeva. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has emphasised that New Delhi views the stability of its relations with Russia as an important pillar of its foreign policy.
Christopher Clary, non-resident fellow at the Washington, DC-based Stimson Center, said he believes that “the visit’s primary deliverable is the visit itself”.
“The symbolism shows his acknowledgement of Ukraine’s suffering in this brutal war. Even if India is unwilling to condemn Russia’s role in starting the war, Modi bearing witness to it will serve to insulate India from some criticism,” he said. “India could also use this trip to underscore its vision of strategic autonomy.”
Harish Khare, Indian political analyst and former adviser to Manmohan Singh, Modi’s predecessor, was more blunt. According to him, the trip to Kyiv is aimed at pleasing Washington.
“No substantive results should be expected from the visit,” he said. “He is going there to appease his Western friends.”
Indeed, Indian exposure to Russian weapons has gone down in recent years as New Delhi has tried to wean itself away from its traditional military dependence on Moscow. According to the latest Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data, India now buys 36 percent of its weapons from Russia from a high of 76 percent between 2009 and 2013.
How Modi does that slowly without alienating Putin will prove India’s long-term challenge, said analysts. A tightrope walk awaits Modi in Kyiv on Friday.